Future of Report
2025 is a significant year for the global payments industry. Marking the midpoint of the decade, and witnessing pivotal trends like the rise of real-time payments, advanced fraud detection and prevention, data portability, and open finance—these interlinked developments will set the stage for innovation through to 2030 and beyond.
The payments industry is now at the tipping point of global innovation, especially with global e-commerce market revenue projected to reach over $4.3 billion in 2025 and grow by 8% (CAGR 2025-2029). Further, by 2026, 5.2 billion people, or more than 60% of the global population, are expected to use digital wallets. The value of global transactions through account-to-account (A2A) payments is also predicted to rise from $1.7 trillion in 2024 to $5.7 trillion by 2029 – an increase of 230%. This will also pave the way for real-time payments to boom, with an expected CAGR of over 35% from 2024 to 2032.
Looking at major global markets, the UK has continued to be at the forefront of the global payments revolution, quickly emerging as a hub for open banking as a result of the PSD2 directive and the UK’s pioneering standard. In October 2024, the Data Use and Access Bill was introduced to the House of Lords, signalling the UK’s commitment to bolstering open banking’s data sharing principles. Similarly, a month later, the National Payments Vision was unveiled, charting a clear path for the entire ecosystem to leverage technologies such as AI and DLT.
The payments revolution is also taking over Europe. The Instant Payments Regulation (IPR) is rolling out instant payments by amending SEPA and adding specific provisions on instant credit transfers in euro to existing cross-border regulation: the Settlement Finality Directive (SFD) and the Payment Services Directive (PSD2). IPR also demands for Verification of Payee (VoP), confirming a recipient's account details before a payment is made and bringing down increasing numbers of fraud, particularly in the instant payments space.
Similar to other regions, the US has made significant steps toward the innovation and interoperability of real-time payments – most recently through the launch of FedNow in 2023, the Federal Reserve’s real-time payment rail. Predictions show a total value of $95 billion in-app social commerce payments by 2030 in the US alone, meaning the integration of open banking is pivotal to maximising the value to be gained from e-commerce. However, the impact of the Trump administration’s strains on the CFPB and how that will effect Section 1033 and open banking in the US will be seen.
This Finextra report, in association with Form3, examines the impact of these crucial advancements on the future of global payment schemes in the UK, Europe and the US, highlighting insights from experts at Bank of America, Crédit Agricole, ING, J.P. Morgan Payments, Lloyds, Santander, and Truist.
452 downloads