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Britain and the European Union can't agree. How will this affect investors?

Since Boris Johnson became the Prime Minister, Britain has in every possible way demonstrated a lack of fear towards a tough deal with the European Union. Over the years of its presence in the European space, Britain has successfully resisted imposition of labor market standards, subordination to the economic and political institutions of the EU, and the introduction of a single currency on the territory of the United Kingdom (which the UK was quite sceptical about). In a sense, all of this softens the perfidious Albion’s divorce from mainland Europe. Nevertheless, at the same time, Britain is potentially losing a huge sales market. This could also be a great opportunity for the UK to agree on new preferential trade deals with countries outside of the EU. In the event a deal isn’t struck, Boris Johnson already gave his consent to the possibility of trading with the European Union under the rules of the World Trade Organization

No analyst right now would be willing to predict the budget losses, especially in light of the problems due to the pandemic. Considering that global demand and trade are at their lowest, Britain's transition to WTO standards does not look catastrophic for the country's budget. In any case, the slump in trading is already taking place and it is unlikely that the economy will fully recover until December 31. This coupled with the possibilities of new trade deals creates very strong bargaining power with the EU. Against the backdrop of the pandemic, the standard of living has already dropped significantly, real wages fell by 4.5%, unemployment, according to forecasts, may reach beyond 12%, and in 2021 even hit over 13%. Compared to all of this, the impact of Brexit on the economy becomes far less prominent.

Nonetheless, some investors are already beginning to shift their investments from pounds to euros, suggesting that the UK's growth rate could slow significantly in the long term. There is a concept that Europe’s financial center, which London was informally considered to be, will potentially move to Germany. I personally do not believe in this shift taking place to a significant extent due to multiple organisational and cultural reasons. In the meantime, both the euro and the pound are near local maximums. Market participants will likely wait for a decision within the framework of the autumn round of negotiations, during which the EU might make concessions, but the likelihood of this is low. In the event of a tough divorce, the pound quotes might face a downward movement to 1.2000 against the US dollar, while the euro during the same time period will be positioned quite comfortably in the range of 1.15 - 1.17.

 

 

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