21 March 2018
John Doyle


John Doyle - Doyle Financials

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Want to know a secret about the referendum?

31 May 2016  |  9563 views  |  0

Before I answer, let me ask you if you’ve noticed like me that the European Commission has gone very quiet about the referendum.  Cameron has stepped up the rhetoric but is not putting anything new on the table just countering Brexit arguments and Osborne – has he gone on holiday?  Brexit have toned back their more salacious arguments and the prominent ideologues have all but disappeared from the scene leaving poor Liam Fox to carry the can.

Why; I hypothesise of course but I sense that the main protagonists have been surprised that there has been little movement on the voting predictions and sense that the public are getting fed up of nonsensical claims from either side and have retrenched in order to fight the future fight.

What future fight I hear you ask. 

On June 24th when the result is announced it is expected that whoever has won it will have been by a thin margin.  In a referendum as important as this whoever wins cannot ignore the losers because they are expected to be about 48% of the electorate.

June 24th doesn’t see the end of UKIP, the end of Scottish Nationalism, the end of UK frustration with the EU, the Cameron leadership, our place as the 5th largest economy in the world and our place as a world leader and it certainly doesn’t stop us having a future referendum if we desire it.

So what is the secret?  Well, I believe from all that I have written, read and listened to that the EU have said to Cameron, no matter what the result is on 23rd June we will reorganise the EU to accommodate the UK’s concerns with overregulation and the free movement of people.

Why can’t they say that now?  If the EU were to make any interventions without knowing what the result is going to be they could find themselves in a position where they offer more than they need in order to placate the UK.  Their only choice at the moment is to let the process continue to its end and then step in to repair the damage not only to the UK, but to other countries such as France and Greece who in the referendum process have made it clear they are looking to see what happens in the UK before they also make some demands.

The EU is damaged now, but not beyond repair.  Cameron in calling their bluff has exposed for all to see that many of the EU citizens are dissatisfied with the faceless bureaucrats and the extraordinary power they wield over the lives of the 500 million citizens of the EU.

If you ask a Brexit supporter what can be done to change the regulatory regime in Brussels, they respond by saying we need to get more control over our borders.  If you ask an In person how we get more control they respond by saying the economy is good and that Brexit would damage it.

The truth is we can’t change the EU, only the EU can.  They are now faced with a stark choice between changes or inevitably the EU will break up as national priorities continue to challenge the European dream.  The EU needs to create harmony and the UK is a significant part of that.  Our service industry alone powers the EU as it is a huge provider of finance and a conduit through which non-EU countries funnel their money into the EU.  

The EU need the UK and for that reason I believe the EU has already told Cameron what he wanted to hear earlier this year, that a deal can be done and will be done.

Don’t tell anyone because it’s a secret!

TagsPaymentsRisk & regulationBrexit

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job title Director
location London
member since 2007
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Blogger, consultant and adviser on UK payments matters. SWIFT and payments expert.

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