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Happy New Year, Ainsley - it sounds like you had a great Christmas! Our own post-lunch debates had far less strategic substance to them than yours - parking my teenagers in front of the Disney didn't work; they wanted to play poker, the Texas Hold'em way,
and assault my poor wallet one more time...
My guess? Yes, absolutely, the world will change, rather than shuffling a bit. One of the big change areas will be supervision, of course. Pan-continental regulation is already expected, first of banking operations and then of investment banking, and as
an industry we have become conditioned to introduce massive voluntary change in the name of regulatory compliance, even when the regulations themselves do not demand it (look at the growing fragmentation of securities trading accredited to MiFID, and equally
interesting developments in the name of AML (cover payments), the PSD (various) and Basle II).
Our world will change because regulators, politicians and industry overseers believe they have a mandate now to do more, more quickly, than before 2008. At the least, there will be cross-border regulations and regulators - there will therefore be stronger
alignment and harmonisation of transactions, risk models, funding practices and reporting mechanisms, none of which will be cheap or painless to implement. This will affect how, and how easily, we can create and trade financial instruments and risks.
That will change the rules and ultimately the mechanics of funding of regular commercial enterprise - the tricky bit is how to keep all this change off the radar scopes of Joe the Plumber, Andrew the marketeer, Alison the violin teacher and John the retired
milkman, on whose solid, reliable, prudent spending the old and new system depends.
My bet is that Christmas 2014 will look and feel much like Christmas of 2007 - but the financial markets and regulatory system behind it will be different in significant but invisible ways. I wish you and all readers a safe passage through the intervening
Vice President, Payments Solutions
10 Oct 2007
This post is from a series of posts in the group:
A place to share stuff that isn't at all fintec related but is amusing, absurd or scary.