I am currently re-reading Malcolm Gladwell's book The Tipping Point. The crux of the book is around what the author highlights as "The tipping point is that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire. Just as a single sick person can start an epidemic of the flu, so too can a small but precisely targeted push cause a fashion trend, the popularity of a new product, or a drop in the crime rate" , and in the cycle of adoption there comes that point which becomes critical for mass adoption and growth.

As I read the book, I can't help but wonder if mobile payments will ever reach their Tipping Point. And if yes, then when? After 5 years, 10 years, Never or will it be completely geo based. So may be in 3 years in the US, in 4 years in the UK, and in 10 years in India? 

Let's take the Indian context. When I look around me, the most predominant payment mechanism is cash. Irrespective of gender, location, socio-economic strata and age, most people are extremely comfortable paying with cash - especially for their every day payments. Why? Simply because that's how they have grown and that's what they see around them. 

A very small percentage of the population actually use mobile payments, Interestingly even the so called technology-savvy, IT professionals who reside in the Tier 1 Indian cities don't seem to use mobile payments that frequently ; at least for those who are 30+ years of age. "I don't seem to have too many avenues to use it for my daily essential needs. I mean I don't buy a mobile phone daily right?" opined one individual. "Nothing as simple and seamless as cash, Why would I bother to take the effort to load and pay when I have cash at hand" exclaimed another.  

For the younger generation who are 20+ years of age, they are cautiously experimental about mobile payments, but still don't use it that frequently. One of them mentioned "Well! Someone loads the money in my mobile wallet, All I do is spend, so it works well". "A lot of places I go to don't accept mobile payments, so what is the point of it" said another. "Also with the mobile network connectivity issues in many areas that we go to, finally the best and trusted option is cash or card"

So what exactly do they spend for using mobile payments? Most of them claim to use it for mobile recharge, P2P transfers, bill payments or occasional shopping when there are good deals / offers at the online / mobile marketplaces. I believe that it is a reflection of the broader trends as well.

While this is the reality of today, tomorrow can be very different. No on can predict when mobile payments will reach their tipping point?

In this post, I am sharing some data from published sources on Mobile Payments in India in 2015. These data and insights have compelled me to wonder if we'll reach the tipping point sooner than later?

* India has a population of 1.277 Bn people, with more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. It is expected that, in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years => This means that younger mobile-savvy demographics (who are digital natives) who are starting their payments journey today can be influenced to create their everyday payment habits around mobile payments

* 20+% is the current smart phone penetration in India at an expected growth rate of 60+% CAGR. This is fueled by the low cost smart phones and the fact that the phone is integral to individual identity => This means that the basic resources to initiate a mobile payment is affordable, so consumer readiness to use mobile payments is only going to increase

* Projected Hyper-growth of ‘mobile data’ usage in next 5 years; at 74% CAGR with 2G/3G/4G networks is enabling internet access to the remotest corners of India => This means that the mobile data infrastructure is only going to get better, so mobile payments can soon be a viable alternative to anytime anywhere payments. Worries about reliability of mobile data services can soon be a thing of the past

* Online Payment In India Accounted For 14% Of Total Transaction Amount In FY 2015 => Which means that the online payments market share is slowly but steadily increasing, and this could mean good news for even mobile payments

*  Banks and telcos are also innovating and providing mobile payments solutions to consumers. Mobile Payments innovations, platforms, marketplaces and solutions like PayTM, SnapDeal, MobiKwik, FlipKart, etc. are investing big budgets in marketing and advertising for customer awareness and acquisition, and also giving unbelievable offers and discounts to get consumers to try mobile payments. => This means the awareness is only increasing on mobile payments, and the possibilities of what you can buy using these solutions from the confines of your home is unimaginable

* Digital India initiatives to boost e-commerce /m-Commerce and a Favorable Regulatory Environment with RBI having mobile payments in its Priority List means more focus and investments => This means that the government and governance mechanisms are in place to take mobile payments to the next level

With so many favorable factors creating a ripe environment and ecosystem for mobile payments in India, will we soon reach a tipping point? Leave a comment to share your perspective...