As Canada’s federal election approaches on 28 April 2025, the financial services sector could be standing at a pivotal juncture. The
BBC reported a record-breaking early voter turnout with 7.3 million Canadians casting their ballots a week ahead of election day.
Polling has suggested that Liberal former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney is in the lead against Conservative Pierre Poilievre. These early results are noteworthy amid US President Trump imposing blanket 25% tariffs on goods from
Canada.
With Canada doing a majority of its trade with the US, the impact has already been substantial – resulting in thousands of temporary layoffs in the auto sector.
In Poilievre’s view, it’s “time for the government to start pinching pennies. We can choose change. We can choose hope. We can choose our future.” Carney, on the other hand, believes that his party will be the one to overcome current trade issues. “Pierre
Poilievre has no plan to stand up to President Trump,” he said.
The 2025 federal election will determine the direction of key initiatives that could reshape the banking, payments, and fintech landscape. Industry participants must engage with policymakers, remain informed about developments, and address challenges to
keep pace with competitiveness, innovation, and accessibility after Carney or Poilievre win: here’s how.
Open banking on the horizon, opportunities and uncertainties
Latest news out of the country revealed that the Canadian government has promised that open banking legislation will be in place by the end of 2025.
Despite this announcement following a three-year investigation into whether Canada should follow in the UK’s footsteps. And initially promising to enact this regulation by the start of 2023 - 1 million Canadian dollars have been allocated to the Financial
Consumer Agency of Canada (FCAC) to enforce a framework that covers governance, scope, common rules, national security, and technical standards.
Unfortunately, delays are not uncommon across Canadian banking, payments, and fintech sectors. In 2024, two separate groups
launched campaigns calling for open banking legislation and warned the government that Canada was being left behind.
If Mark Carney were Prime Minister of Canada, there is potential for open banking implementation to be accelerated. As a known
advocate for modernising financial infrastructure and having
worked closely with the UK’s open banking rollout - which is widely considered as the global benchmark - Canada could quickly adopt a similar approach.
It is evident that Canada is ready for standardised APIs,
centralised governance, and strong consumer data rights, but bureaucratic bottlenecks are what are holding Canada back. With Carney at the helm, the Canadian government may call for mandatory participation from traditional banks and even more funding given
to the FCAC.
Under Poilievre’s leadership, while open banking may still be implemented at an accelerated rate, it may be riskier. Poilievre has been a vocal
critic of traditional players such as the Bank of Canada and is
supportive of decentralisation, financial autonomy and free-market competition. Regulatory frameworks may not be relied upon in the same way the industry
could expect from Carney.
In 2022, Poilievre stated that he would ban the Bank of Canada from issuing a CBDC if he became Prime Minister, but in the same breath, vowed to make Canada the “blockchain capital of the world,” as reported in
Reuters.
Arguably, this could be a big win for the fintech sector in terms of less red tape. But the tech-savvy startups can expect pushback from Canada’s Big Six banks and the Bank of Canada that would cite concern over data security, consumer protection, and a
lack of centralised oversight.
Real-Time Rail and payment reform, levelling the playing field
Canada’s real-time rail (RTR) payments system will now not be implemented until 2026. This new timeline comes after a launch pencilled in for
2019 initially, before a date being set for mid-2023.
Most recently, Payments Canada has claimed “renewed momentum" with the real-time payment message exchange component being
completed in June 2023. Establishing real-time clearing and settlement continued throughout 2024 and testing will be conducted
in 2025 and 2026.
Carney could theoretically fast-track the launch of the RTR, especially if there is pressure to meet or beat current timelines. Understanding the importance of opening up infrastructure to competition, Payments Canada may also be encouraged to ensure direct
access to fintech firms and payment service providers, in addition to traditional banks.
Of course, regulatory frameworks would be established to govern non-bank participants, and risk would have to be managed without gatekeeping. Although, with Carney’s experience, the former bank governor will likely give RTR the political and institutional
credibility it needs to scale.
Unlike his opponent, there is strong evidence that Carney would be in
support of a future CBDC, allowing Canada to become a global leader in modern payment infrastructure, no longer a cautious
follower. Further, with close connections in the UN, BIS and across climate finance organisations, expansion into
programmable payments, smart contracts, and digital trade could become a reality.
Again, Poilievre would also want to speed up the RTR rollout, but with a pro-innovation, move fast, fix later stance. With lower barriers to entry, private players could be quickly layered on RTR, allowing underserved verticals like the gig economy or SME
payments to thrive.
The industry must also consider how the RTR rollout could be framed. Limited central bank supervision, lighter-touch regulation, and in turn, faster experimentation, may lead to RTR being leveraged to show consumers that banks no longer ‘hold on to their
pay cheques’ and they can now access their money in real-time.
What’s at stake? Comparing party platforms on financial innovation
Carney
- Innovation with structure,
- Open banking and RTR aligned under a long-term, regulated roadmap,
- More trust from international investors and institutions,
- Slower progress and more bureaucracy,
- Sustainable innovation and global credibility.
Poilievre
- Innovation with speed,
- Market-led innovation with minimal gatekeeping and fewer regulatory delays,
- More agility and domestic entrepreneurial energy,
- Instability and regulatory blind spots,
- Fast growth, lower costs, and pro-startup momentum.