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No. "Change" is any degree of change. "Complete replacement" means replacement of at least 90%, if not 100% (which becomes "disruption"). I'll leave the definition of "major change" open-ended and context-sensitive!

In the long term, we're all dead anyway. No point in hallucinating about changes beyond 5-10 years. That's my point:) On a side note, government diktat brought about a reduction in cash usage from 98% to 70% in 3 months. And this was in a vibrant democracy. So, major changes can happen fast - it just depends upon the change agent.

@AlexanderPeschkoff:

I did some checking around. I'm told that, in today's Shanghai, Alipay and WeChat account for 95% of retail payments, with cash / plastic cards accounting for barely 5%.

That said, China's GDP has increased by 5X in the last 10 years (Source: Wikipedia). Such an explosive growth is unmatched by any other country and would have sounded implausible 10 years ago. So, there's a massive amount of new money generated in China during this period. I lack historical data but it's quite possible that Alipay / WeChat account for nearly 100% of this new money but replacement of barely 10% of existing cash / plastic. Accordingly, even Alipay / WeChat would be an example of a new product category that has augmented - rather than replaced - another product category.

@MichaelFuller + 1. And it's misleading in many other places apart from the headline e.g. "change one million customer sort codes". AFAIK, there's nothing called "customer sort code" - I think it should be Bank Sort Code.

@AlexanderPeschkoff: I don't know much about these two products in China. What have they replaced?

@AlexanderPeschkoff:

I make my living selling technology, so you're really preaching to the converted if your point is about the power of technology to do new things:)

But the context of this post is replacement, not just new, where a new product category X replaces an existing product category Y. I haven't done any comprehensive research but, in the last century, I can barely think of 10 new, sizable tech-enabled Xs that have succeeded in replacing an old Y e.g. MS Word - Typewriter, Cars-Horse Carriage, MP3-CD, Email-Snail Mail, etc. OTOH, I can think of many Xs that have failed to replace many Ys regardless of whether X became popular or not viz:

1. Videoconferencing hasn't replaced face-to-face meetings.
2. Using Twitter to solve a customer service issue on a moving train hasn't replaced verbally complaining to the Train Ticket Examiner.
3. EMR / EHR haven't replaced handwritten / computer-printed prescriptions.
4. While I've personally never gone back to a human broker ever since I started using an e-brokerage 15 years ago, human brokers haven't become extinct.
5. Bank branches and digital channels still coexist.

I can go on and on but I hope you get my drift. 

If, even the mightly IBM is positioning AI as "Augmented Intelligence" that will empower human beings to do more rather than replace human beings with robots, there's a reason for that.

And, when it comes to proximity payments, I rate the chances of "words, gestures and smartphones" replacing plastic cards as quite low. Partly because plastic is not broken and therefore replacing plastic doesn't have a compelling value proposition. Partly also because payment leaders like SQUARE have tried and given up on an even more frictionless form of payment in SQUARE WALLET that worked by using face recognition and didn't even require words and gestures.

I don't know Dr. Ian Pearson. I take your word that many of his predictions have come true. But, with due respect to him, I don't see his prediction about "words, gestures and smartphones" replacing plastic cards coming true in the forseeable future.

@AlexanderPeschkoff:

I'm with @MarkAnderson on this. You may have balked at AirBnB but renting out a spare room to a "Paying Guest" or PG has been a standard practice in India and a few other countries for ages, well before AirBnB came into existence. When it comes to "words, gestures and smartphones", the problem with mainstream adoption is precisely what you've pointed out: Technology changes more rapidly than people. But people are the ones who need to adapt the technology and, to do that, they need a compelling reason. Despite being around for nearly a decade, mobile wallets haven't replaced cards because plastic is not broken. That will precisely be the challenge for adoption of "words, gestures and smartphones" when it comes to proximity payments. Moreover, if people are not comfortable speaking out the amount of payment at a supermarket checkout, they won't use this technology, however rapidly it advances.

After Finastra, they may not mind it even if you named your company Misys!

Many have tried to replace card in the last 20 years of Internet commerce. They've failed. Good luck trying to succeed in this mission in the next 20. While on this subject, it doesn't matter that merchants were told to cough up the cost of PCI DSS. If V/MC had done something on their own instead, they still would've passed on the cost to merchants. End of the day, for a payment card, V/MC is the supplier and merchant is the customer and, as they say, a good business makes its customer pay for its last cup of coffee.

I don't know what's it about PSD2 that inspires reference to 70s classic rock. In my case, it was Pink Floyd: Innovative Fintechs Don’t Need No PSD2 Regulation.

On a side note, I still remember listening to Stairway on 31 Dec 1979. I'm sure you know this but, after being voted the best rock number of the 70s decade, BBC played Stairway repeatedly for 24 hours on the last day of the decade.