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Only one thing is certain: Uncertainty is here to grow

Too often I hear people (including myself) complaining about uncertainty. Uncertainty about politics, economics, business, and life. It is a fair first reaction, but we should quickly remind that we are adults and accept the reality: Uncertainty is here to stay. Or should we better say that uncertainty is here to grow?

Thinking about my own world, I constantly read about future of banks: divorcing investment bank from retail, new regulation, cost cutting, location strategies, vendor rationalization, new operating models, strategic technologies, etc. It is so easy to be in despair trying to guess what is truly going to happen and when.

I see many different ways to manage uncertainty, to simplify it:

  1. Set up a long-term strategy and stubbornly stick to it. This approach might be valid in the old times, but now it is just not pragmatic. So many variables can turn a good strategy into a stupid idea in a few months.
  2. Forget strategy, just react to facts. Come on, this is not management! This is laziness, which is as unacceptable as it was before.
  3. Set up an agile strategy management. Define strategies based on educated views, follow all steps to make the strategy happen. But also establish a governance that allows continuous refinement of this strategy, including quickly disregard of any plan based on exit criteria.

The way I have explained it, you can guess that I like option 3. ;-)

In any case, some months ago I was looking for a video that could inspire my team and myself about uncertainty. I was looking for something useful but at the same time relaxing and funny. This is what I found. The first time I heard the guy I laughed. But subsequent times I started to pick some useful concepts from that funny speech. Essentially:

  1. Uncertainty <> Fail
  2. One door closes, another door opens
  3. Put trust in the center and doubt in the periphery.


This is the video, have fun:


Have a nice and uncertain day,

Miquel Febrer



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