Banks set to maintain control of loans market as new entrants struggle

Banks set to maintain control of loans market as new entrants struggle

Non-bank alternative finance providers are unlikely to make any significant dent in the share of marketplace lending by the traditional banking establishment, according to an analysis by Deloitte.

Given a fair headwind and a ten-year timeframe, Deloitte estimates that marketplace lenders could gain control of approximately six percent of the loans market across key segments, including personal lending, SME business lending and the retail buy-to-let market in the UK, which, together, may represent approximately £600bn of lending.

However, this assumes that banks make no effort to compete and historically low level interest rates prevail. MPLs face an even lower share of the market of just one percent or £0.5bn by 2025, if interest rates normalise and banks innovate.

Deloitte estimates MPLs currently have less than one percent market share in both consumer and SME lending.

Neil Tomlinson, head of UK banking at Deloitte, says: “Contrary to a number of commentators, we do not see MPLs as a major threat to banks in the mass market. Borrowers like the benefits of speed and convenience of MPLs, but those willing to pay a material premium to access loans quickly are in the minority. Whilst banks are yet to replicate the benefits of the MPL model, we believe it is only a matter of time before they use their size and scale to overtake and sustainably under-price MPLs.”

A consensus appears to be building across the financial services industry that whole swathes of the current crop of fintech startups are themselves set to be disintermediated by the establishment banks as they invest in new technology and hoover up the most promising ideas and firms. A report from Greenwich Associates last week forecast that many major fintech and nonbank providers will be acquired by banks in the coming years, leading to the creation of digital financial superstores owned and controlled by the world's leading banks.

Comments: (3)

Ketharaman Swaminathan
Ketharaman Swaminathan - GTM360 Marketing Solutions - Pune 23 May, 2016, 18:521 like 1 like

With most categories of fintechs working as mere distribution channels for traditional banks, online P2P Lending companies like Lending Club were the only hope to disrupt traditional banks. Sad to see this bleak outlook for them.

Hitesh Thakkar
Hitesh Thakkar - SME - Fintech startups (APAC and Africa) - India 24 May, 2016, 10:21Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

Most of Fintech startups being light weight and innovative can standalone can perform but after acquition they meet the fate, what a feather meets when a drops of water falls on it.

I think it will remain SEE SAW game before dust settles down.

A Finextra member
A Finextra member 25 May, 2016, 14:541 like 1 like

The very essence of fintech is turning the (until not so long ago broken) financial supply chain from discrete to continues and hence, allowing a better demand-supply alignment. When 50% of the demand is unserved and fintech companies are gradually taking customers of the banks, one should take this report with a grain of salt

Lending platforms/ AltFi providers are the future of commercial/ retail banking. There are hundreds of serious academic researches that describe and analyse the reasons underlying the severe SME/ micro-businesses market failure, where the over-demand (across the board) is estimated at £00B in every one of the developed economies

Banks underwriting processes are way too slow and expensive compared to the (very low) risk they take, which leaves about 50% of the demand for credit un/ under served. Banks can't compete with fintech companies in underwriting new customers (for which banks don't have internal historical data) and they admit it. In addition, banks can't compete with certain digital-based products that are offered to existing customers