Banks set to lose 43% of retail payments revenue under PSD2

Banks set to lose 43% of retail payments revenue under PSD2

UK banks could be poised to lose up to 43% of their retail payments based revenues by 2020 as the revised Payment Services Directive accelerates advancements in e-commerce and contactless technology, according to data compiled by Accenture.

Set for introduction in early 2018, the revised Directive, PSD2, will usher in new forms of payment institutions, introduce new interaction models, and mandate the opening of banks’ payment and bank account systems through application programming interfaces (APIs) to third parties.

With retailers demanding alternatives to the card networks and e-commerce and contactless transactions set to shoot up from 18% of the market to cover approximately half of all UK shopping spend, the nation's banks are being pushed to a "decision tipping point", says Accenture.

Those that choose merely to opt for minimum compliance with the new rules and seek to monetise their investment in API access stand to lose the most, says Accenture.

The consultancy estimates that the new new breed of payment initiation service providers will erode 33% of online debit card transaction volumes and 10% of online credit card transaction volumes resulting in a total market share of 16% of online retail payment volume by 2020. Taking the UK as an example, this would result in the loss of over £1.45bn of card transaction revenues between 2017 and 2020 - money that was previously captured by the banks and card networks.

Banks must think strategically if they are to see off this threat - which accounts for two-three percent of total industry revenue - by embracing the changes as an opportunity to provide new products and services and expand the payments ecosystem and aggregation of value, states the consultancy.

Comments: (8)

A Finextra member
A Finextra member 16 May, 2016, 14:342 likes 2 likes

A loss of "33% of online debit card transaction volumes and 10% of online credit card transaction volumes" does not equal "43% of retail payments revenue".

Gerard Hergenroeder
Gerard Hergenroeder - Payments Shark - Millersvile 16 May, 2016, 16:36Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

43% seems really high. This implies banks stand to lose a big piece of their consumer lending business. Banks won't let that help. Banks have been adaptibile over the past 40 years. Banks will always be involved in consumer lending. The big question is "how" will they participate. Will some banks evolve to more of an indirect lending model? Some may but I suspect most will make appropriate changes to ensure that they actively participate in the originating side of lending. The key issue is whether or not alternative Fintech solutions can lower originating costs. I suspect they can not.

Josh Brayman
Josh Brayman - MarketStack - Guildford 17 May, 2016, 11:56Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

Anybody have a link to the report?

A Finextra member
A Finextra member 17 May, 2016, 12:30Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

@ Gerard - you have missed the point - the article is about the fundemental changes that will be possible in the payments infrastructure, not consumer lending (which despite the rise of alternative / p2p consumer lenders is still dominated by the high street retail banks in the UK)

Slava Gnevko
Slava Gnevko - Avictis Ltd - London 22 May, 2016, 17:35Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

Indeed it would be great to learn about the methodology of compiling the data to arrive at the conclusions. Also, transactions initiated by the 'third parties' will have to materialise on the payments schemes, e.g. as Direct Debits or FPS SIPs. What are the predictions by Accenture that PSPs (major banks) will recover revenue through the alternative channels, exposed to the new entrants as APIs? 

Luca Gagliardi
Luca Gagliardi - Accenture - London 25 May, 2016, 10:51Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

To clarify our analysis, 43% of retail payments card revenues at risk refers to both online and offline card payments. These revenues are at risk due to the combination of interchange fee regulation, PSD2, and new digital entrants (for example Apple, M-POS providers).

Considering payment initiation services only, we have assumed 90% of their transactions volume will be online and 10% in store by 2020.  In the online segment, we estimate PISPs who initiate payments directly from bank accounts for online purchases will erode 33% of online debit cards and 10% of online credit cards (it is coincidence these figures also add up to 43%).

You can find the report on our website www.accenture.com (it easiest to find it by Googling “Accenture PSD2”)

 

Charmaine Oak
Charmaine Oak - Shift Thought Ltd - Bristol 10 August, 2016, 09:47Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

Report is at https://www.accenture.com/t20160518T092811__w__/us-en/_acnmedia/PDF-19/Accenture-Banking-Opportunities-EU-PSD2-v2.pdf

Charmaine Oak
Charmaine Oak - Shift Thought Ltd - Bristol 10 August, 2016, 09:581 like 1 like

Just on the report, what do pages 7, 10 and 19 add to the analysis? Hard to take a report seriously when there is a lot of extra fluff. And the blue background does not help either. Having to analyse and get to the meat of tons of reports like these I welcome more simplicity in presentation - Back to basics I say.