UBS ranks Germany as most likely World Cup winners

UBS ranks Germany as most likely World Cup winners

UBS deployed a team of 18 analysts running 10,000 simulations to determine the likely winner of the World Cup football tournament in Russia next month, with Germany emerging top of the pile.

The propellor heads at UBS ran a Monte Carlo simulation, crunching a large number of random variables to achieve the overall rankings.

Perennial World Cup winners Germany were given a 24% chance of raising the trophy at the end of the month-long tournament, with Brazil coming in second on 19.8% and Spain in third on 16.1%.

So far, so obvious. More surprising however is the trajectory of hapless under-achievers England, who are handed the fourth place berth and an eight percent chance of lifting the urn.

Forecasting the winners of major athletics and football tournaments is a popular sport among the analyst community. UBS may be the first out of the traps with its 17-page summary, but one thing we can confidently predict is that it won't be the last.

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