29 March 2017
visit http://events.sap.com/gb/fsi-forum-2017/en/home

Goldman Sachs quants back Brazil for World Cup glory

28 May 2014  |  4071 views  |  0 Brazilina flag 1

Brazil has a nearly 50% chance of winning the World Cup this summer, according to Goldman Sachs quants who have been crunching the numbers ahead of the tournament.

As hosts, Brazil will kick off the event against Croatia on 12 June in Sao Paulo and, according to the Goldman statistical model, have a 48.5% chance of lifting the trophy in Rio on 13 July.

The bank's eggheads have predicted the outcome of each match in the tournament based on a regressive analysis using the entire history of competitive international matches since 1960.

The model gives Argentina a 14.1% chance of winning the Cup, Germany an 11.4% shot and England just a 1.4% chance. In fact, Goldman does not expect England to even make it out of the group stages.

However, fans should not despair - the quants have a mixed record in the football predictions game. Goldman backed Brazil in 2010 but the samba boys could make it no further than the quarter finals.

Goldman (and Brazil) was outperformed by Paul the Psychic Octopus, who correctly predicted 11 out of 13 matches during the tournament in South Africa. Sadly, Paul will not be sharing his expertise this year - the oracle octopus died in October 2010.

Comments: (0)

Comment on this story (membership required)

Finextra news in your inbox

For Finextra's free daily newsletter, breaking news flashes and weekly jobs board: sign up now

Related stories

Paul the octopus outsmarts banking's brightest quants

Paul the octopus outsmarts banking's brightest quants

12 July 2010  |  12526 views  |  0 comments

Related company news

 

Related company information

Goldman Sachs

Related blogs

Create a blog about this story (membership required)
Visit capgemini.comvisit abe-eba.eu

Top topics

Most viewed Most shared
Danish banks add Dankort payments to mobile walletsDanish banks add Dankort payments to mobil...
14955 views comments | 2 tweets | 7 linkedin
European Commission opens public consultation on fintechEuropean Commission opens public consultat...
13547 views comments | 53 tweets | 32 linkedin
MAS to roll out national KYC utility for SingaporeMAS to roll out national KYC utility for S...
12387 views comments | 33 tweets | 45 linkedin
hands typing furiouslyTwo key technologies driving Machine Learn...
8840 views 0 | 16 tweets | 4 linkedin

Featured job

Six Figure Base + Commission + Stock Options
London

Find your next job