False Economy at SIBOS

It's popular to have a good kick at the nearest banker as the world struggles to recover from the financial crisis but SIBOS was weird because so many people were talking about the crisis as just a bad memory.

The feel good factor at SIBOS does not measure up, as if the EU announce spending cuts in line with the UK, this will at the least, cause disruption in the economy and at worst stop the recovery and put the markets into freefall.

The recovery such as it is at the moment, is fragile and is not certain to continue and spending cuts will only be felt in the economy over the next year. Of course the EU could 'spend spend spend' to try and stem the possibility of dropping back into recession but with either a policy of spend or cut, no one should be talking of the crisis as history just yet.

Financial services firms and their suppliers have by and large had a good year and this might account for the impression of a storming recovery, but I urge caution as we are far from 'out of the woods' yet.