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Inflation delayed - or eliminated

http://boharald.blogspot.com/2010/08/inflation-delayed-or-eliminated.html

With some discussion in my other blog. Body:

 

The Economist is pointing out interesting China facts in last week’s leader.

Snippets:

1.on salary levels: “little more than one-twentieth of the average monthly wage in America. But it is 17% more than the year before.”

2. on how the rich world has come to rely on cheap Chinese labour: “by one estimate, trade with China has  added $1,000 a year to the pockets of every American household, thanks to cheaper goods in the country’s stores, cheaper inputs for its businesses and stiffer competition in its markets.”

3. on inflation in the past: “..expanding the global workforce by a quarter through the addition of cheap Chinese workers helped keeping the prices down in the west..” My comment: how this has held down inflation and this again contributed to competitiveness should earn more attention

4. on the future: “..higher Chinese wages might start to export inflation.” My comment: productivity increases will probably eliminate that effect  and part of the work will go to the next cheap labour market (Joan Robinson“ the misery of being exploited by capitalists is nothing compared to not being exploited at all”)

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Comments: (2)

John Dring
John Dring - Intel Network Services - Swindon 06 August, 2010, 12:59Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

Good inflation related (UK) link here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7925564/Interest-rates-will-go-up-quicker-than-anyone-expects-ex-Bank-of-England-officials-warn.html

Having established higher margins above the current low interest rates, I think the banks can't wait to see interest rates rise. They'll continue to reap the same margin from borrowers as well as attract more savers/investments.

But it will kill the so called 'over-borrowed'. Loans which are serviceable now will rapidly become at risk with just a few points rise which could amount to a doubling or more of current low rates.

Surely 'inflation' is already being curbed by more 'responsible lending' and we shouldn't need the one-size-fits-all mallet of interests rates this time.

On the China inflation factor I have no clue.

Bo Harald
Bo Harald - Transmeri, Demos, Real Time Economy Program,MyData - Helsinki Region 07 August, 2010, 09:38Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

Thanks John,

Banks in the Nordics have learned some lessons in the past and quite systematically stress-tested lenders capability to pay higher interest rates - which invariably will come. I do hope this goes for most regions - but occasionally the fierce competition may lead to too much erosion both of margins and quality. 

If the developing countries are allowed to continue to eliminate inflation with more cheap labour there will of course be less need for higher interest rates.

But then there is this other side - how much manufacturing should we really export. The quarterly capitalism is such turbo here - and short term gains can often be long term damage. At least Andy Grove thinks so: 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-01/how-to-make-an-american-job-before-it-s-too-late-andy-grove.html

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