a while now I made a few predictions and offered a few suggestions in my finextra blog.
They were to do with what was about to happen. It appears that I had a pretty good handle on the future.
One of the key points was to be on the ball when it came to deals in the wake of what I predicted would be somewhere between a recession and a depression (unless governments got together and acted early).
It appears that the advice was taken (both by governments and some banks).
Goldman reports in
WSJ that the larger banks have increased their value between Q2 2007 and Q2 2009.
"Goldman says they estimate that big banks have increased normalized earnings 39% from Q2 2007 to Q2 2009. And that’s compared to an estimated -36% falloff in normalized earnings from the regional banks during the same period. So what’s goosed the earnings
power of the big banks? Deals. And that’s where Wells Fargo has really outshined some of its competitors . “Wells is the big winner this cycle on change in tangible assets per share, up 70% from 2Q07 to 2Q09."
I also predicted Santander would be the leader of the pack. I do believe thay are in pole position now. They are certainly the leading non-government bank.
I haven't received that cheque yet, so don't expect to see anymore free advice. In fact I've a mind to show banks a thing or two and perhaps lead by example. The future is very bright especially if you can see it.