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What Crash? That was a minor correction.

The downturn on Wall St couldn't be classified as a crash. It's a long overdue correction which hasn't played out fully. The crash, if it comes, is yet to come.

Historically we've had a similar drop in the Nasdaq every 4.2 years, it's been 7 years. Overdue.

The S&P has had a similar drop on average every decade. This one was 10 years overdue.

That is if you pay any heed to history or any attention to reality.

I'm not a professional share adviser but that doesn't stop me being an expert. My track record is better than any investment advisor I've heard from. It's clear that the 'experts' are talking up the market. We've seen the same thing in Australia with the real estate market talked up by many a would be car salesmen in just the same way.

The only concern I have is that the public listen to these experts and usually get bad advice. While I'm all for being positive and not 'talking the market down' the truth is that it is overheated.

I see the Australian treasurer saying that Aussie institutions are insulated from what is happening overseas. Really? What about what is happening in Oz? The real estate prices are at least 25% above sustainable levels despite ridiculously high interest rates. In every country town things are grim. Many properties are for sale. Debt is at record levels - completely unsustainable in current economic conditions, and this won't come back to bite the banks? Housing supply is very short due to successive corrupt state governments playing footsy with developers and maintaining tight housing supply to keep prices high and  compounded by a federal government importing immigrants by the boat-load.

The Australian banks have a lot of money tied up in mortgages. Bad mortgages. Sure they backed 'arms length' mortgage originators to go and write a lot of dud mortgages but they are by no means insulated from the squeeze.

There's a difference between responsible support for the markets and blatant spin. What we see at the moment is pure unadulterated spin.

If Australia is so insulated then why does the government need to pump billions into the mortgage originators? To keep the prices of homes artificially high and save the banks from grief?

The banks have a handle on the government and are pulling their strings. It is a different market than overseas because of the protected status of the big four banks. The result is Australians pay more for everything.

There is a 'readjustment' coming and no amount of spin is going to change that.

I note that there are some real long term bargains at the moment in the small resources sector, but the tech sector is still definitely overheated and I'm still bearish on (not just Aussie) banks.

I suspect today has been a dead cat bounce driven by greed and those who stepped in to grab some 'bargains' may be a little optimistic, but what would I know? Time will tell.

If the dirt wasn't exportable we'd be growing banana's

Comments: (1)

A Finextra member
A Finextra member 02 October, 2008, 23:01Be the first to give this comment the thumbs up 0 likes

Hmm..dead cat bounce.

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