CEBR Cassandras accused of over-optimism

The CEBR forecast for 20,000 credit crunched job losses in the City of London has been trumped by a new analysis from JPMorgan property analysts which puts the total number of redundancies at something closer to 40,000.

To be fair, JPMorgan's figures embrace a wider definition of the 'City', taking in Canary Wharf and some parts of the West End, and include non-finance-related employment. But even on a like-for-like basis, the doomsters at the US bank are forecasting a cull of some 28,000 jobs in the Square Mile.

I see the CEBR is also predicting that trading volumes on the London Stock Exchange will fall 36% over the next two years. Bad news for the LSE and equally troubling for the legions of new exchange operators waiting in the wings. Executives at Thomson/Reuters - currently putting the finishing touches to their livery in time for launch later this month - must also be fearful of the consequences for recurring revenue streams from market data terminal sales.