20 September 2014

Goldman Sachs quants back Brazil for World Cup glory

28 May 2014  |  2488 views  |  0 Brazilina flag 1

Brazil has a nearly 50% chance of winning the World Cup this summer, according to Goldman Sachs quants who have been crunching the numbers ahead of the tournament.

As hosts, Brazil will kick off the event against Croatia on 12 June in Sao Paulo and, according to the Goldman statistical model, have a 48.5% chance of lifting the trophy in Rio on 13 July.

The bank's eggheads have predicted the outcome of each match in the tournament based on a regressive analysis using the entire history of competitive international matches since 1960.

The model gives Argentina a 14.1% chance of winning the Cup, Germany an 11.4% shot and England just a 1.4% chance. In fact, Goldman does not expect England to even make it out of the group stages.

However, fans should not despair - the quants have a mixed record in the football predictions game. Goldman backed Brazil in 2010 but the samba boys could make it no further than the quarter finals.

Goldman (and Brazil) was outperformed by Paul the Psychic Octopus, who correctly predicted 11 out of 13 matches during the tournament in South Africa. Sadly, Paul will not be sharing his expertise this year - the oracle octopus died in October 2010.

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