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A Windy Road Lies Ahead as Scandal Prompts New Rules

What a difference US$2.3 billion makes.

The CEO of UBS could have been enjoying the Singapore Formula One Grand Prix this weekend. Instead, Oswald Grübel, the chief executive of a sponsor for racing’s highest class, met in the city-state on Tuesday with his bank’s largest shareholder.

Sure, a UBS board meeting was already scheduled in Singapore for this week -- prior to Sunday’s race -- but the talk won’t likely focus on business as usual, or even how well Jenson Button will negotiate the Marina Bay circuit. And we can bet that Grübel’s Tuesday powwow with the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. didn’t focus on any of that either.

Talk undoubtedly turned to last week’s allegations that a low-level UBS trader in London lost billions in unauthorized transactions. Experts expect these events to trigger comprehensive investigation and massive regulation.

“UBS’ sad news about its loss and apparent control failure has been a godsend for reigniting attention on banking reform,” Pete Hahn of London’s Cass Business School told Reuters.

The first reform could be closing a loophole that may have allowed the 31-year-old suspect to unlawfully engage in speculative trading on U.S. and European stocks. But wiping fingerprints from the crime scene could have been surprisingly simple, given that trades in Europe generally transact over the counter or via other non-public forums. (They leave a paper trail in the U.S. as they trade across an exchange.)

But uncovering the method is not all investigators hope to get out of this.

“We need to learn all the lessons,” a European Commission spokeswoman told The Wall Street Journal. “In particular, we are keen to find out whether what happened was mainly due to internal management failures and why, or whether there are also wider regulatory lessons to be learnt.”

Trading in the U.S. isn’t off the hook though. Regulators’ 174-page draft has many worried about how authorities will enforce overseas trading limitations by the so-called the Volcker Rule, an ambiguous part of the still-ambiguous Dodd-Frank Act that bans U.S. banks from trading on their proprietary accounts.

“Positions arising under certain repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements or securities lending transactions [and] bona fide liquidity management” would be permissible, according to the draft as quoted by the Financial Times. So would “positions in loans, spot foreign exchange or commodities.”

However, the rule may reach beyond U.S. borders to banks with operations overseas, according to Bloomberg News. Affected banks could subsequently lay off workers in the U.S. or relocate them abroad.

So it looks like the road ahead may have more twists and turns than Sunday’s Grand Prix. Just try not to lose any ground; this may only be the warm-up lap.

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