I look back over 100 blogs I've written and have a look at the major issues discussed.
Faster transactions, security, identity and whether smart cards or mobiles or a mixture of both would be the best path for transactions.

In the background the financial crisis of the century has loomed large with some and banks were beginning to explore mobile banking and transactions. The jury is still out on all, but it's still very early days. Customers seem to like the idea of faster transactions and it looks like it'll catch on.

Banks effectively got a get out of jail free card to under-report or delay write-downs and avoid loss of market confidence. The problem is when do those passes expire? The painful effects will continue to emerge and be felt for a couple of years.

Fees are under pressure.

Security insecurity spin
I've been amazed at the spin-doctors promoting their security solutions when all of them were completely ignorant of the issues, the internet, technology in general and uniformly oblivious to the real problems. The internet is not suitable for traditional transaction methodologies even though misguided marketers with vested interests are determined to keep it unsafe in pursuit of behavioral marketing and push advertising opportunities which are never really going to fly.

Unfair, even foolhardy, terms for customers
Banks have also introduced terms and conditions to internet banking making  the customer liable for internet transaction fraud - which is not fair or equitable, to say the least. Banks are already being named as they fail yet again to fix their own gaping security flaws. Critical flaws in the internet infrastructure have been exposed and exploited which show that no user or corporation was safe, no matter what flavour of snake oil 'protection' they employed. The existing transaction methodologies and technologies have not been effective in the digital world and banks are approaching a period of diminished reputation and lower trust ratings.
Governments are moving to prevent a re-occurrence of the recent market shenanigans and looking at ways to reduce the effects, particularly in the mortgage markets. There will be narrower margins on lower rates as governments employ the traditional stone age club method of managing economies. The problem is that interest rate cuts alone often translate into unsustainable housing prices, and just delay an even worse outcome.

Second Wave of the credit crunch
There is now a secondary wave of write-downs coming over the horizon and further erosion of trust.
While governments strongly encouraged citizens to invest in superannuation, many funds were investing in creative real estate backed securities which have proven to be less than secure. Now secondary effects are hurting even those who stuck to blue-chip. Money has moved into commodities and oil, although in diminishing supply, is priced well in advance of consumption and all market structures are being adversely affected. Climate has proved challenging to food producers with diminished supply at a time of strong demand and rising prices so speculators don't have to look very far to find potential returns.
At some point the market will lose the ability to support the pricing.

We've seen investments in banks plummet in value, and in many cases the value was never really there.
Because of their traditionally infrastructural role in commerce, whether good times or bad people still need to buy and sell things, banks have historically weathered rough financial seas, but we may see a fundamental shift in the way consumers transact as new technology is introduced and this will erode remaining transaction revenue. Many banks and financial institutions have become bundled and branded third party service aggregators which may lead to further undermining of the bank/trust association in the minds of consumers. Card brands are cornering both the credit card and debit transaction markets and moving into stored value, leaving banks out of the transaction end point. Bank brands will find it more difficult to execute effective branding campaigns without any connection to the point of purchase. It's pretty hard to add that wide-screen TV automatically to the customer's insurance policy if you don't know they even bought it until after the Visa guy has upsold their policy.

Bankers have to ask where they are going to be in a world of beware-bank-phishing-email and an unsafe internet if they aren't in the mobile transaction link. Will their customers ever even visit the bank website or open a 'bank' email?
 
The current financial and trust crisis will not work in the bank's favour although they'll see knee jerk reactions manifest as increased interest bearing and term deposit rates. As retirees count their losses and further complications take their toll many consumers may be more discriminating in their financial choices.

New entrants into the transaction connection
The most obvious opening for new financial service providers is with lower fees, and it is becoming easier for consumers to ascertain the fees they are paying and the interest they may or may not be earning. Consumers may seek convenience and security, over return, although retirees will be looking desperately for both, as their diminished returns bite into their income. I assume that if you've lost money on investments, you won't want someone stealing what you have left but you'll still want very easy access to your funds. It will also mean instant anywhere trading in the whole range of fonancial products and services.

Potential for consumer to consumer lending
The barriers to consumer-consumer lending may come down quickly and bite into the consumer finance market.
The recent record returns for the card brands may be the zenith. Many interests are moving to squeeze transaction fees and the pressure is unlikely to diminish with worsening economic conditions, which has seen banks bear the blame. Consumer to consumer credit is just waiting for a real time transaction mechanism and loan engine to dominate the consumer credit market.

Unsafe internet transactions are the norm
Banks have been promoting internet banking as safe, while plotting to avoid the risk of a system they created and ignoring or ignorant to the fact that virtually the whole internet as wide open and still is.  Many of the bank's own sites are deeply flawed. Consumers  ahve spent countless millions on virtually pointless antivirus and personal firewalls while navigating, interacting and transacting blindly. We're just lucky the bad guys can only spend so much money, and I'm sure my readers have a better idea about how much it really is.

Fraud up
Early in the year I explained More's law - basically there'll be more fraud, and that has proved to be true with increasing levels of fraud everywhere. Smart tokens, CHIP and PIN proximity cards, have all been shown to be lacking. As deployment costs escalate, the incentive for fraud grows with diminishing prosperity, and the latest cycle of prosperity is definitely over.
Social networking presents additional vectors for attackers and malware distribution with Facebook, Myspace and Twitter  all having been misappropriated by hackers. These services will all require good identity and privacy controls to enjoy long term success.

Privacy is being forgotten - hopefully temporarily.
Privacy has undergone some changes with the internet providing almost limitless personal and previously not-so-public personal information from your weekend activities on facebook and personal video views on youtube, to the names addresses and records of the criminals, sex offenders and even traffic offenders living in your neighbourhood.
While some will applaud the freedom of information there must be a limit and when the system provides a means for any fraudster to usurp your identity and steal your money it is likely that consumers will look for more privacy protection.

Ancillary services are where the real money is, but you can still bank on mobile transactions.
My view has always been that ancillary services and value adding, even at the point of sale will play a big part in how consumers choose to transact. Perhaps if consumers buy using your bank's mobile facility the bank will add that wide-screen TV to your insurance policy and cover it for a discount or for free? Extended warranty? 'Rewards' from the manufacturer, store and bank?
Not if the bank isn't really 'in' the transaction. Value-adds can also be more flexible ways of using the instrument, such as added privacy and security.  Transactions are potentially a profit centre but more valuable as the key to further opportunities.

We've chosen the mobile because of the vastly increased range of value adds that only the mobile phone can deliver, and they can all be deployed without additional new infrastructure for any of the major stakeholders.

Mobile operators will offer all sorts of social networking and entertainment tools but these will become standard features  for any service. Mobile operators will try and be in the transaction business but will suffer from the limitation of only being able to offer it to their own users with limited merchant acceptance and p2p compatibility. Any approach with too many 'stakeholders' participating in servicing transactions will be both uncompetitive and unsafe. Another important issue is - Who gets to offer these ancillary services everyone is talking about? Does the Telco get to offer all the ancillary services? Does the bank? Highest bidder?

We are looking more at being an 'operating system' for mobile phone users, separate to their games and entertainment and enabling their financial and information transactions to be safe and easy, and compatible with everything they do in-store, on the net, p2p and even some new places. The most important requirement is that it is easy, because that is what consumers want. It could also give all banks an edge in retaining their customer's transactions in-house. A separate transaction network with global reach and no financial borders with banks being able to provide credit and debit transactions in-house and trade with any other bank or merchant in the system.

Mobilisation will enable you to use your mobile to buy or find out more about any product either advertised on TV, the internet or in the real world, pay someone, identify or qualify yourself. For a bank customer this might mean that you could add the item you just bought to your insurance policy, get an extended warranty, earn rewards, and of course pay for the transaction safely in a single process. It might also mean you could respond to a TV advertisement and apply instantly for a loan or credit facility, enroll in an investment fund or swap your mortgage, all with a few key-presses on your mobile. It will enable you to respond to the new car advertisement on TV and arrange a test drive, get a pre-approved loan and transfer ownership, insure it and even take delivery, during the test drive.

What is a bank worth if it isn't participating in that transaction process? Where are the opportunities for a bank in the mobile world without a mobile connection to the customer? Surely none of you doubt that the major opportunity for retail banks in the future is fonancial transactions? Where are the customer 'touch points'?

Customers don't want to be inconvenienced with too many security features, extra gadgets to carry or remembering anything except maybe a PIN  - and mobile NFC marketers certainly agree that customers don't really want to carry a card. They do want fraudsters stopped from stealing their money or identity.

Of course everyone probably has the same idea - it's just how they plan on doing it that is the important part. Scalability and ubiquity hand in hand could make it easier than a walk in the park. Ultimately the choice will be in consumers' hands.

The question is - Will it be your bank in the palm of their hand and where will it be if it isn't?